Australia consider JFM act of faith for semi-final

Australia will be faced with a difficult choice for their Champions Trophy semi-final; either they overlook Jake Fraser-McGurk's recent struggles by gambling on the explosive young opener's potential against India's army of spinners, or take a more conservative path that could involve a batting order reshuffle.

Matthew Short's quad injury has left the defending 50-over champions needing a new partner for Travis Head in their first knockout match since toppling India in the 2023 World Cup final.

The rivals this time face off in Dubai, where India are playing a parallel tournament away from ‘host’ nation Pakistan. An Australia win will see the final played back in Lahore; an India victory will keep the decider in the UAE metropolis.

While Cooper Connolly has formally been added to Australia’s 15-man squad, Fraser-McGurk is the most logical like-for-like replacement for Short as an aggressive right-handed opener who can take advantage of favourable early batting conditions.

A straight Short-for-Fraser-McGurk swap would leave captain Steve Smith, who bowled Short's off-spin for seven economical overs in their final group match against Afghanistan, down a spinner on what has so far been a turning surface in Dubai.

But Australia are not short on replacements within their incumbent XI. Head's more-than-useful off-spinners (yet to be used in this tournament) and Marnus Labuschagne’s leggies (which yielded two late wickets against England) are both viable options to complement frontline spinners Adam Zampa and Glenn Maxwell.

The bigger question now for the Aussies is whether they can rely on Fraser-McGurk in the high-stakes contest.

It also highlights the difficulty they have had replacing David Warner, who retired from international cricket last year having played in all 59 of Australia’s matches at ICC events in the decade between 2014 and 2024. This Champions Trophy marks the first ICC tournament Australia have not had Warner in their squad for since the 2011 World Cup.

Aaron Hardie, also yet to play in this tournament, is another option for a top-order berth having batted at three in two ODIs last year. But he has more regularly been deployed between No.6 – 8 in his 13 ODIs to date.

Connolly would be a bombshell pick given the importance of the match. He has just three ODIs to his name, the most recent against Sri Lanka in Colombo last month when he batted first drop and was lbw to mystery spinner Maheesh Theekshana for 3, but his left-arm spin could be an asset.

After Short, Fraser-McGurk has been given the most opportunities to establish himself as David Warner's long-term replacement.

But from seven ODI innings – all but one as an opener, the other coming at three – the right-hander has passed 16 just once.

Given Fraser-McGurk has averaged 13.70 in List A cricket since his world record 29-ball century in the One-Day Cup in October 2023, picking him to face one of the most formidable attacks in world cricket in the semi-final of a major event would be an act of faith.

Although there is little 50-over form to base Fraser-McGurk's recall on, Australia's selectors could lean on previous T20 form. That would also require overlooking his sub-par recent BBL in which he averaged 18.80 for the Melbourne Renegades.

Less than 12 months have passed since his extraordinary 2024 Indian Premier League campaign, in which he pummelled 330 runs at a strike-rate of 234.04. Notably, he fared well against a succession of international-quality spinners in that run for the Delhi Capitals, albeit on friendly batting pitches.

While he did not face any of the four India spinners who strangled New Zealand during Sunday's final Group A match, Fraser-McGurk did take down the likes of Krunal Pandya (smashing him for 27 off seven balls), Washington Sundar (30 off seven), Piyush Chawla (12 off six) and Mayank Markande (20 off five), all of whom have played white-ball cricket for India.

It could augur well for Fraser-McGurk to be given a license in the Powerplay for Tuesday's first semi-final, even if India do target him and Head with spin. Both Axar Patel and Varun Chakravarthy were deployed inside the first 10 overs against NZ.

Australia's alternative to Fraser-McGurk could be to bring in Hardie or Connolly to bat in the middle-order and promote Josh Inglis, another to have been tried as an opener in the post-Warner era (scoring 65, 9 and 35no in a series against West Indies at home in February 2024).

Inglis' stunning century from No.5 against England certainly highlighted that he is deserving of further opportunities, while his right-handedness would also leave him as a strong foil for Head.

The main downside is it would rob Australia of one of their best players of spin through crucial middle-overs on the Dubai pitch India have built a formidable game-plan on in their unbeaten tournament run away from less spin-friendly pitches in Pakistan.

Against NZ after posting 9-249 on a sluggish surface, India bowled just a solitary over of pace after the six-over mark as Axar, Chakravarthy, Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav shared nine of the 10 wickets between them to skittle the Kiwis for 205.

It was a similar story as their disciplined attack kept Bangladesh and Pakistan to 228 and 241 respectively in their first two matches, although they played an extra seamer on both occasions.

Presuming Rohit Sharma’s men stick with four spinners, expecting Hardie (of whose 13 ODIs, just two have come in Asia) or even Connolly to thrive against India's attack would arguably be a bigger gamble than relying on Fraser-McGurk to come off against the new ball.

From a bowling perspective, Zampa's role as a middle-overs wicket taker should be elevated further in Dubai. It may mean there is less of a role for Australia's inexperienced seamers, or even the possibility of leg-spinner Tanveer Sangha replacing one of them.

"These guys (Australia's pacemen) haven't played a lot of one day cricket and it's a different format (to T20)," Zampa said before Australia's semi-final opponents and venue were confirmed.

"The wickets that we've had in Lahore, creating wickets through the middle up front can be quite tough.

"(Playing in Dubai) changes it a little bit. Potentially a slower, lower wicket, so there might be an opportunity to create a few more chances."

2025 ICC Men's Champions Trophy

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Australia's Group B fixtures

February 22: beat England by five wickets (15 balls remaining)

February 25: match abandoned v South Africa

February 28: no result v Afghanistan

March 4: Semi-final 1, India v Australia, Dubai (8pm AEDT)

March 5: Semi-final 2, South Africa v New Zealand, Lahore (8pm AEDT)

March 9: Final, Lahore or Dubai (8pm AEDT)

Australia squad: Steve Smith (c), Sean Abbott, Alex Carey, Cooper Connolly, Ben Dwarshuis, Nathan Ellis, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Spencer Johnson, Aaron Hardie, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Marnus Labuschagne, Glenn Maxwell, Tanveer Sangha, Adam Zampa.